Overview:

Bundesliga Round 15 meeting at MEWA Arena: struggling Mainz (home) host low-scoring St. Pauli (away). Both teams sit in the relegation/low-mid zone, recent forms mixed — Mainz have shown slight defensive improvement while St. Pauli remain compact and organized on transitions.

Recent H2H results: Mainz unbeaten vs St. Pauli (4 wins in last 4 H2H meetings).

Prediction:

Based on current form and stats, we expect a close contest with a final score of 2-1 in favor of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
Expect Mainz to control possession and probe centrally while St. Pauli sit slightly deeper and attempt quick transitions; set pieces and second-ball duels will be decisive; Mainz may push wing-backs higher which opens space for Pauli counters.
Mainz's slightly better home possession and H2H dominance increase their chances despite low scoring; St. Pauli's compact defensive shape and recent away resilience temper the margin — set pieces and transitional moments tilt outcome toward Mainz.

Last Update: 20-12-2025

Stats:

1. FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli
Expected Possession
51.7	48.3
Average Goals Per Match
0.93	0.93
Win Probability
0.52	0.22

Position	Team	Won	Drawn	Lost	Points
1	Bayern	20	3	1	63
2	Dortmund	15	7	2	52
3	Hoffenheim	14	4	6	46
4	Stuttgart	14	4	6	46
5	RB Leipzig	13	5	6	44
6	Leverkusen	12	4	7	40
7	Frankfurt	9	7	8	34
8	Freiburg	9	6	9	33
9	Augsburg	9	4	11	31
10	Union Berlin	7	7	10	28
11	HSV	6	8	9	26
12	M'gladbach	6	7	11	25
13	1. FC Köln	6	6	12	24
14	Mainz	5	8	11	23
15	St. Pauli	6	5	13	23
16	Bremen	5	7	12	22
17	Wolfsburg	5	5	14	20
18	Heidenheim	3	5	16	14

Name	Club	Country	Matches	Goals	Assists
H. Kane	FCB	ENG	24	30	4
D. Undav	VFB	GER	20	14	3
L. Díaz	FCB	COL	23	13	8
S. Guirassy	BVB	GUI	24	11	N/A

1. FSV Mainz 05 VS FC St. Pauli

Overview:

Prediction:

Stats:

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