Overview:

Bundesliga Round 15 meeting at MEWA Arena: struggling Mainz (home) host low-scoring St. Pauli (away). Both teams sit in the relegation/low-mid zone, recent forms mixed — Mainz have shown slight defensive improvement while St. Pauli remain compact and organized on transitions.

Recent H2H results: Mainz unbeaten vs St. Pauli (4 wins in last 4 H2H meetings).

Prediction:

Based on current form and stats, we expect a close contest with a final score of 2-1 in favor of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
Expect Mainz to control possession and probe centrally while St. Pauli sit slightly deeper and attempt quick transitions; set pieces and second-ball duels will be decisive; Mainz may push wing-backs higher which opens space for Pauli counters.
Mainz's slightly better home possession and H2H dominance increase their chances despite low scoring; St. Pauli's compact defensive shape and recent away resilience temper the margin — set pieces and transitional moments tilt outcome toward Mainz.

Last Update: 20-12-2025

Stats:

1. FSV Mainz 05	FC St. Pauli
Expected Possession
51.7	48.3
Average Goals Per Match
0.93	0.93
Win Probability
0.52	0.22

Position	Team	Won	Drawn	Lost	Points
1	Bayern	24	4	1	76
2	Dortmund	19	7	3	64
3	Stuttgart	17	5	7	56
4	RB Leipzig	17	5	7	56
5	Leverkusen	15	7	7	52
6	Hoffenheim	15	6	8	51
7	Frankfurt	11	9	9	42
8	Freiburg	11	7	11	40
9	Mainz	8	9	12	33
10	Augsburg	9	6	14	33
11	Union Berlin	8	8	13	32
12	HSV	7	10	12	31
13	1. FC Köln	7	9	13	30
14	M'gladbach	7	9	13	30
15	Bremen	7	7	15	28
16	St. Pauli	6	7	16	25
17	Wolfsburg	5	6	18	21
18	Heidenheim	4	7	18	19

Name	Club	Country	Matches	Goals	Assists
H. Kane	FCB	ENG	27	31	4
D. Undav	VFB	GER	25	18	5
L. Díaz	FCB	COL	27	15	9
S. Guirassy	BVB	GUI	29	13	N/A

1. FSV Mainz 05 VS FC St. Pauli

Overview:

Prediction:

Stats:

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