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Round 23 - Bundesliga

RB Leipzig VS Borussia Dortmund

Red Bull Arena

21 February, 2026

Overview:

RB Leipzig hosts Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga Round 23. Leipzig currently sits 2nd with 22 points from 10 matches, while Dortmund is 3rd with 21 points from 10 matches. The teams are evenly matched historically with identical 9 wins each across 21 meetings.

Recent H2H results: 1-1 Draw (October 4, 2025)

Prediction:

Based on current form and stats, we expect a close contest with a final score of 2-1 in favor of RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig's high-pressing system and possession advantage (7-1-2 record) should exploit Dortmund's tendency toward draws. However, Dortmund's recent form (3 wins in last 5) and defensive organization present counter-threat. Expected possession split favors Leipzig but Dortmund's efficiency on fast breaks remains dangerous.
Leipzig's superior league position, recent form streak, and home advantage at Red Bull Arena significantly favor the hosts. Dortmund's drawing tendency and lower scoring average weigh against them. Historical head-to-head parity (9-9-3 record) suggests competitive match but Leipzig's current trajectory provides edge.

Stats:

RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund
Expected Possession
50 50
Average Goals Per Match
2.2 1.8
Win Probability
0.58 0.17
Position Team Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Bayern 14 2 0 44
2 Dortmund 9 6 1 33
3 RB Leipzig 9 2 4 29
4 Leverkusen 9 2 5 29
5 Stuttgart 9 2 5 29
6 Hoffenheim 8 3 4 27
7 Frankfurt 7 5 4 26
8 Freiburg 6 5 5 23
9 Union Berlin 6 4 6 22
10 M'gladbach 5 4 7 19
11 1. FC Köln 4 5 7 17
12 Bremen 4 5 6 17
13 HSV 4 4 8 16
14 Wolfsburg 4 3 9 15
15 Augsburg 4 2 10 14
16 St. Pauli 3 3 9 12
17 Heidenheim 3 3 10 12
18 Mainz 1 6 9 9
Name Club Country Matches Goals Assists
H. Kane FCB ENG 16 20 3
M. Olise FCB FRA 16 9 9
L. Díaz FCB COL 15 9 6
H. Tabaković BMG BOS 15 9 1

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