Overview:

Manchester United vs Manchester City in Premier League Round 4 is projected as a tight derby, with Manchester City slightly favored on most model-based previews and historical simulation data.[1][5][14]

Recent H2H results: Man City edge

Prediction:

Based on current form and stats, we expect a close contest with a final score of 0-1 in favor of Manchester City.
City are likely to control more of the ball and push United deeper, while United’s best route is direct transitions and exploiting space behind the defense. Set pieces and first-goal advantage may be decisive in a matchup that multiple models rate as low-margin.[1][5][9]
The balance of probability slightly favors City because of stronger win projections across several models, but the draw remains a meaningful outcome in a derby context.[1][5][14]

Last Update: 01-08-2026

Stats:

Manchester United FC	Manchester City FC
Expected Possession
46.5	53.5
Average Goals Per Match
1.05	1.55
Win Probability
32	42

Position	Team	Won	Drawn	Lost	Points
1	Arsenal	26	7	5	85
2	Man City	23	9	6	78
3	Man United	20	11	7	71
4	Aston Villa	19	8	11	65
5	Liverpool	17	9	12	60
6	Bournemouth	13	18	7	57
7	Sunderland	14	12	12	54
8	Brighton Hove	14	11	13	53
9	Brentford	14	11	13	53
10	Chelsea	14	10	14	52
11	Fulham	15	7	16	52
12	Newcastle	14	7	17	49
13	Everton	13	10	15	49
14	Leeds United	11	14	13	47
15	Crystal Palace	11	12	15	45
16	Nottingham	11	11	16	44
17	Tottenham	10	11	17	41
18	West Ham	10	9	19	39
19	Burnley	4	10	24	22
20	Wolverhampton	3	11	24	20

Name	Club	Country	Matches	Goals	Assists
E. Haaland	MCI	NOR	36	27	8
T. Rodrigues	BRE	BRA	38	22	1
A. Semenyo	MCI	GHA	37	17	4
O. Watkins	AVL	ENG	37	16	3

Manchester United FC VS Manchester City FC

Overview:

Prediction:

Stats:

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