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Round 38 - Premier League

Fulham FC VS Newcastle United

Craven Cottage

24 May, 2026

Overview:

Premier League Round 38 matchup between Fulham FC and Newcastle United projects as a tightly balanced contest, with Fulham’s home advantage offsetting Newcastle’s slightly stronger squad quality and more consistent chance creation. Current-market indicators and recent form suggest a low-margin game with both teams capable of scoring, but Newcastle hold a marginal edge in overall win probability. A draw remains a realistic outcome given the evenly matched profiles and late-season intensity.

Recent H2H results: Newcastle slight edge in recent meetings

Prediction:

Based on current form and stats, we expect a close contest with a final score of 1-2 in favor of Newcastle United.
Fulham are likely to prioritize a compact shape, protect central zones, and attack in transitions and set pieces. Newcastle should seek to dominate territory, use wider overloads, and create through higher-tempo combinations. The key tactical battle is whether Fulham can disrupt Newcastle’s rhythm and force a lower-possession, lower-event match.
Fulham’s home advantage narrows the gap, but Newcastle’s superior attacking metrics and slightly better overall balance keep them as marginal favorites. The most likely game state is competitive and moderately open, with both teams generating enough chances to score. A narrow Newcastle win or draw is the most plausible outcome.

Last Update: 21-05-2026

Stats:

Fulham FC Newcastle United
Expected Possession
49.5 50.5
Average Goals Per Match
1.35 1.55
Win Probability
35 39
Position Team Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Arsenal 26 7 5 85
2 Man City 23 9 6 78
3 Man United 20 11 7 71
4 Aston Villa 19 8 11 65
5 Liverpool 17 9 12 60
6 Bournemouth 13 18 7 57
7 Sunderland 14 12 12 54
8 Brighton Hove 14 11 13 53
9 Brentford 14 11 13 53
10 Chelsea 14 10 14 52
11 Fulham 15 7 16 52
12 Newcastle 14 7 17 49
13 Everton 13 10 15 49
14 Leeds United 11 14 13 47
15 Crystal Palace 11 12 15 45
16 Nottingham 11 11 16 44
17 Tottenham 10 11 17 41
18 West Ham 10 9 19 39
19 Burnley 4 10 24 22
20 Wolverhampton 3 11 24 20
Name Club Country Matches Goals Assists
E. Haaland MCI NOR 36 27 8
T. Rodrigues BRE BRA 38 22 1
A. Semenyo MCI GHA 37 17 4
O. Watkins AVL ENG 37 16 3

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