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Round 16 - Ligue 1

Paris FC VS Toulouse FC

Stade Charléty

13 December, 2025

Overview:

Tight Ligue 1 encounter at Stade Jean Bouin where Toulouse arrive as the steadier mid-table side while Paris FC struggle for consistent scoring; both teams have recently produced low-scoring league games, suggesting a competitive, low-to-medium scoring match with marginal advantage to Toulouse based on form and defense metrics.

Recent H2H results: Several recent meetings saw multiple goals; 5 of last 6 over 2.5 goals

Prediction:

Based on current form and stats, we expect a close contest with a final score of 1-2 in favor of Toulouse.
Paris FC likely to attempt controlled build-up and exploit wide areas but may lack finishing; Toulouse expected to sit slightly deeper, absorb pressure, and use quick vertical transitions and set-pieces to create chances.
Paris FC's poor scoring run lowers win expectancy despite home advantage while Toulouse's defensive cohesion and recent results increase their probability of avoiding defeat; H2H history of higher-scoring games nudges expected scoreline toward a 1-1 or 1-2 range.

Stats:

Paris FC Toulouse FC
Expected Possession
48.5 51.5
Average Goals Per Match
1.07 1.4
Win Probability
0.28 0.36
Position Team Won Drawn Lost Points
1 RC Lens 13 1 3 40
2 PSG 12 3 2 39
3 Marseille 10 2 5 32
4 Lille 10 2 5 32
5 Olympique Lyon 9 3 5 30
6 Stade Rennais 8 6 3 30
7 Strasbourg 7 3 7 24
8 Toulouse 6 5 6 23
9 Monaco 7 2 8 23
10 Angers SCO 6 4 7 22
11 Brest 6 4 7 22
12 Lorient 4 7 6 19
13 Le Havre 4 6 7 18
14 Nice 5 3 9 18
15 Paris FC 4 4 9 16
16 Nantes 3 5 9 14
17 Auxerre 3 3 11 12
18 FC Metz 3 3 11 12
Name Club Country Matches Goals Assists
M. Greenwood MAR ENG 17 11 4
J. Panichelli RC ARG 17 10 N/A
E. Lepaul REN FRA 17 9 3
W. Saïd RCL FRA 17 7 2

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